Russia, Russia, Russia!
With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we supposedly have arrived at a rallying point – a unifier – for Americans.
That seems to be the conclusion coming out of Washington these days.
There’s one problem. It’s not that important to U.S. citizens, although sentiment is high for the Ukrainians. I guess that’s a minor detail inside the beltway.
From Russia’s perspective, the prospect of Ukraine becoming a member of NATO is/was intolerable. Russia shares a border with NATO members Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia which are less threatening to Russia because of their small size.
Understand, NATO was established in 1949 by the US and 11 western European countries to deter further expansion of communism by the then Soviet Union. NATO now counts 30 countries in its membership. The initial formation of NATO began what we called the Cold War which ended in the early ‘90’s with the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
But Russia has a stockpile of nuclear weapons that rivals that of the US and therefore it’s important to us to keep the peace with it. The current head of Russia, Vladimir Putin, apparently has ambitions to reestablish the Soviet Union, at least that’s the word. It’s obviously important to us to keep Russia out of controlling world events.
But our handling of the threat of Russia’s invasion, and now the actual incursion, has been bungled from the beginning and continues today.
We see and hear about the killing and pictures of explosions and destruction happening in the Ukraine and we empathize with Ukrainians. But in the words of William Tecumseh Sherman “War is hell.”
Our government’s reactions amount to a potential escalation of reprisals between the US and Russia and could mark the beginning of another Cold War. This is not in the best interests of Americans or western Europeans.
This is the time for our leaders to be cold, unemotional, thoughtful, and rational about what actions are taken. Rhetoric about banning the pittance of oil imports from Russia would make little difference to our situation or theirs, and stuff like creating a no-fly zone over Ukraine means we’d be shooting down Russian jets. That in turn would likely escalate into a ‘hot’ war with Russia.
Things have changed since 1949. The country most interested in the expansion of communism in the world and world domination is no longer Russia, but China.
At the same time, Russia has become a major player in the oil and gas industry with its plethora of those energy resources. It supports our green energy bent while it has expanded sales to western Europe and currently supplies the EU with nearly 40% of its natural gas and 25% of its oil.
At a time when the US has itself become energy dependent again and the price of oil has nearly tripled in the last 14 months, the prospect of Russia turning off its spigots to the EU and the US in retaliation for economic sanctions would make those sanctions look like small potatoes at a pig roast. Yet this is what we’re all supposed to be supportive of and rally around. The miscalculation already is big and could be immense.
There’s speculation that Putin has ‘lost it.’ The truth is our political leaders have – on both sides of the aisle.
Looking back, we could have tried to make a deal with Russia that the Ukraine would not become a NATO member. We might even have allowed Russia to occupy eastern Ukraine to the Dnieper River. That geography and the people there speak Russian and generally align themselves with Russia anyway. In either case, assuring him Ukraine would not become part of NATO might/could have avoided the war. Fact is, we don’t want Ukraine in NATO either.
The U.S. and other European countries have been trying to put the financial squeeze on Putin’s Russia for its incursion into Ukraine. Big corporations have gotten into that act as transport giants FedEx and UPS have suspended shipments into Russia. In addition, BP is divesting its 19.75% stake in Russian controlled oil company Rosneft and Intel and AMD have suspended chip shipments into Russia.
But if we want to put the real pinch on Russia, we make Europe our customer for oil and gas.
Domestic production of oil and gas grew and flourished under Presidents Obama and Trump ultimately making the U.S. not only energy independent, but an energy exporter. All President Biden has to do is rescind his 1st day EO to shut down pipeline constructions and the order to cease leasing federal lands and expanding regulatory hoops for drilling and shale. At the same time that would quell our energy shortage and our energy induced inflation – and remove the Russian energy stranglehold on the EU.
It’s a no-brainer if you’re not a climate change fanatic – and Putin isn’t.
Putin has played his cards carefully and cleverly. The Ukraine armed forces are no match for Russia’s military capabilities and size. Putin could have overrun Ukraine in several days. Why so take so long? Maybe he’s been holding his 40-mile-long convoy waiting to see if he can still make a deal. Maybe if we can got off our vindictive kick for 5 minutes, we might offer one.
President Biden might even improve his tanking poll numbers.
The last thing Americans want is a war with Russia – hot or cold.
Russia, Russia, Russia! It’s been a redundant mantra and it’s passé. We’re tired of it.
Let’s prepare for and work on our country’s real enemies, China – and those that would destroy our plentiful energy capacity.
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Have a great and prosperous week.
Hug somebody.
References:
https://www.history.com/topics/cold-war/formation-of-nato-and-warsaw-pact
SPIDER Bites
Marion County has so many 200-500 housing developments under way or in the approval stages with the county it’s difficult to keep track. The housing market is obviously still very hot here.
One more week before the Florida legislature adjourns its annual, 60-day session. A balanced budget is required by our Constitution.
The Sunshine State generated 4% of its electricity via solar last year. That number is expected to grow to 14% over the next 10 years if they can find enough land to build commercial, solar PV generating plants.
With employees of restaurants and bars returning to work and making up the bulk of the numbers, the jobs report for February was great with over 650K jobs added.
Current Texas governor, Greg Abbott, will face off against Beto O’Rourke in November after both won their respective party primaries last Tuesday. Robert Francis (Beto) O’Rourke is the best the Democratic Party could put up against Abbott?
President Biden said little meaningful to me about actually doing anything about the top-of-mind problems concerning Americans in his SOTU address last week. He spoke to a Congressional audience that is supportive of “State of” Ukraine and he spent half the time talking about it. But nobody wore masks at his address, I guess that’s noteworthy.
The morning after his SOTU speech oil hit $111, closing Friday at $115. More pain at the pump and the cost of heating oil the rest of winter in many places in the north.
The President announced releasing 30 million barrels from our strategic oil reserve in his Tuesday speech ‘to alleviate rising gas prices.’ That amount is 1 ½ days of current U.S. usage. In other words: ‘Spit in the sea.’
Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed the interest rates will go up this month, but likely by a quarter percent rather than the larger increase expected a month ago. While the Fed wants to quell raging inflation, Powell indicated the impact of the Ukraine war on the US economy is uncertain – but potentially significant.
Our President dispatched his VP to Europe over the weekend. That should take care of matters there, right?
