Red or Blue – What are You?
Red states or blue states.
There really are states and areas of the country that recently and generally vote for candidates from one party over another. I don’t know if that’s because of the party itself or the quality of the one or the other party’s candidates.
If you’re an ‘expert’ on politics, you might think people wait with bated breath for the latest prognostication from you after interpretating the polls and about which candidate is likely to win the election. You would certainly address the political party the candidates are running under – Democrat or Republican. But before you begin sharing your insights you would put the specific state or geographic area into the category of either red or blue, where blue represents Democrats and red, Republicans – or purple – combining the two colors – meaning it might go either way.
That kind of differential nomenclature is not a recent thing. But maybe it’s run its course. It was started by the media and generally fits today’s framework where everybody has a specific identity. We all supposedly fit into some grouping – race, gender, ethnicity, victim, oppressor, etc., etc., Democrat or Republican.
Dependent on the identity category we supposedly fit in, we are assumed to identify with one or more of the separately differentiated groups. All the ‘woke’ folks think they can determine what we’re thinking, what we’re saying and how we behave, and will behave, by the predetermined characteristics of the group to which we have been subjectively assigned.
The reason I suggest the whole Red and Blue stuff may be over is that the groupings of Democrats or Republicans doesn’t really fit the electorate any more.
Nationally, as of January of this year, Gallop reports 46% of voters identify themselves as ‘independent.’ That’s up from 40% in 2018. 28% identified as Democrats and 24% as Republicans.
So, in addition to being the largest voting group in the US, the recent data show the numbers of independents are growing among all demographic groups.
This group is deciding election outcomes — and making election results less predictable. While those voters who registered with one of the two major parties are likely to vote for their party’s candidates, the moods and intentions of those without party affiliation are more volatile, less predictable.
I postulate that is why the polls have been so wrong in recent elections. Independent voters may favor one candidate over another at various times, but it’s when they enter the voting booth the final decision is made by those voters.
Red or Blue? It’s becoming less and less relevant. It’s terminology of that describes the past, not the present or the future.
In early 2018, similar shares of Republicans (77%) and Democrats (74%) said the quality of candidates running in their district in the last several elections had been good, according to PEW Research. Independents are consistently much less likely than partisans to rate the quality of candidates positively. Further, about 25% of them view both political parties negatively.
There are now 19 states that do not require or take party affiliation information when people register to vote. These states have some sort of open primaries.
Of the 38 states that do take this information, 8 do not report those numbers publicly.
In 22 states, no single group of voters make up a majority of registrants.
Pluralities of registered voters in those states are as follows:
Democrats – 10 states
Republicans – 4 states
Independents – 8 states
In the majority of states, regardless of whether candidates are Republican or Democrat, they need independent voters to vote for them in order to win an election. But in 30 states, those independent voters had no part in putting them on the final ballot. If they were in 19 states with open primaries, they are on the final ballot by voter choice, not party choice.
Perhaps we’re at point where Political Parties are treated as minorities, and not in control of the process for elections. I’ve been critical of the political parties and their power and choice limitations on candidates and legislation in the past.
But let’s consider the alternatives of conservative, moderate or liberal rather than Republican, Democrat, Libertarian, or others. According to the Gallop poll cited this is how voters identified themselves on this scale.
Party Conservative Moderate Liberal
Republican 73% 21% 4%
Democrat 14% 30% 49%
Independent 30% 45% 21%
The thread that runs through all this stuff is the number of voters disenchanted with both major political parties is growing. Those independent voters already represent the plurality of voters nationally – and likely will turn more states away from closed primary elections. In a nonpartisan blanket primary, all candidates appear on the same ballot.
Those independent voters are neither Red nor Blue.
Think about the Independents the next time you hear some pundit call states a color. It doesn’t mean either political party has a lock on anywhere and its likely just superfluous prattle.
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Have a great and prosperous week.
Hug somebody.
References:
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/05/15/facts-about-us-political-independents/
https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/registered-voters-by-party
https://futureu.education/uncategorized/how-many-independents-are-there-in-america/
https://ballotpedia.org/Partisan_affiliations_of_registered_voters
SPIDER Bites
I just have to mention the passing of Jerry Lee Lewis. He was one of the ‘50’s-60’s rock & roll rebels who made audiences scream when performing “Whole Lotta Shaking Goin On” and “Great Balls of Fire.” I’d spin those songs in my radio days.
The number of home sales here are finally down from a year ago. At the same time the median and average price is up in the double digits.
Rishi Sunak became the third Prime Minister of the UK this year. He was born in England, is of African/Indian descent, is the first Hindu PM, has an MBA from Stanford, and is married to the daughter of an Indian billionaire.
Trading of Twitter shares stopped on Wednesday as Elon Musk took private control of the company. He fired top executives, said a potential mass resignation of Twitter employees is “fine,” and changed his twitter bio to Chief Twit.
The NY Supreme Court last week found all employees fired for not getting the Covid 19 vaccine must be reinstated – and ordered back pay for them as well. The court found that “being vaccinated does not prevent an individual from contracting or transmitting COVID-19” – and Constitutional rights had been violated. Finally, some legal, rational common sense. Now what does this federal administration do after firing its own civilian and military personnel, and requiring all contractors, including the airlines, to issue the same edict? Biden, Fauci, Walensky and other ‘experts’ executed and condoned the vaccine requirement after saying if you got the vaccine, you wouldn’t get COVID. All of them got it after vaccination and boosters. None of them seemed to remember the “fast track” clinical trials of both Pfizer and Moderna showed 95% efficacy, not total immunity.
With government spending up 2.4% in the third quarter, the GDP grew over 2% after 2 consecutive quarters of contraction. Consumer spending was up 1.4%. Economists noted that the third-quarter gain in GDP can be traced almost entirely to the 14.4% surge in exports. With housing down significantly on higher and higher interest rates and inflation still raging, the overall outlook for the economy is cloudy, at best.
The stock markets rallied last week on the prospect the mid-term elections will result in a split partisan government that will stop spending and growing the debt.
