It’s Time to End the War That Shouldn’t Have Started
The argument we hear most often concerning our support of Ukraine in its war with Russia is that Putin is comparable to Hitler- and appeasing him will only result in more invasions – and he must be stopped now in Ukraine. It’s assumed to be a no-brainer for us. It’s an “unprovoked invasion” on a noble democracy by a corrupt autocracy – or so goes the narrative.
Don’t buy it.
Understand, I’m not a Putin fan, but his so-called designs to reconstruct the Soviet Union or something similar are a little too far-fetched for me.
If I were to buy the argument, I somehow need to agree that the 2014 Russia takeover of Crimea and its large, strategic seaport on the Black Sea is not relevant, even though Crimea was part of Ukraine in 2014. We did not respond to that takeover by encouraging Ukraine to militarily resist.
So why did Putin’s Russia invade Ukraine in late February of this year?
Answer: Ukraine was making ‘noise’ about applying for membership into NATO. Because the US and Europe’s leaders would not guarantee to Russia that Ukraine would not become part of NATO – Russia invaded.
It was no secret. All awake foreign policy leaders knew that Ukrainian entry into NATO was a “line in the sand” for Russia. It’s been so since the early 90’s when the Soviet Union collapsed. All the ethnic republics became independent countries again. When that happened, Ukraine was one of the most Russian of the independent republics. Most citizens of Ukraine speak Russian. In exchange for cheap gas and financial assistance, the Ukraine allowed Russia to keep its Black Sea fleet in the Crimean waters. Presidents Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump knew and understood NATO and Ukraine was not going to be an allowed mix by Russia without some major problems – and therefore left it alone.
When Soviet Communism ended, Ukraine had two big problems. One, it was corrupt, run by Communist oligarchs similar to Russia. Two, Ukraine itself was divided between pro-Russia people in the east to Russophobe citizens in the west.
In 2014, when Russia took control of Crimea – then part of the Ukraine – President Obama and his foreign policy experts let sleeping dogs lie. So did President Trump, albeit both provided military weaponry and know-how to Ukraine during their WH tenures.
Frankly, the US and its European NATO allies had no desire to allow Ukraine’s NATO membership to begin with.
Then, on November 10, 2021, President Biden’s Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, signed a “strategic partnership” with Ukraine. It not only committed the US to Ukraine’s full integration into NATO, but it also stressed Ukraine’s claim to Crimea.
I think that agreement was hubris and supercilious – and stupid. Then, and now, the problems of Russia and Ukraine and the complexities of the Black Sea’s regional problems with all its risks were thrown into the lap of the United States. We deliberately provoked Putin – we dared him – to invade Ukraine and he did.
Just to articulate a few of those problems:
Military Problems
How do we know who won this war? When is it over? What’s our mission? Even I know we’re fighting a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine’s name. The weaponry and intelligence we have provided Ukraine has been a drain on our country. If the US via Ukraine were to ‘win,’ it will require a Korea-type military build-up to hold the ground. That’s a lousy outcome for a “win.”
Economic Problems
American policymakers have launched an unprecedented type of economic warfare against Russia. At US urging, Russia has been cut off from the private-but-universal Brussels based SWIFT system, which is used for international financial transfers. In addition, we have frozen the hard currency reserves of the Russia central bank. All these actions carry long-term risks, including the prospect of Russia, China and India setting up alternative systems to move their money because they can’t trust us.
The economic sanctions imposed regarding the use of Russian natural gas have also backfired, with Europe now facing a winter with severe shortages of electrical power. In addition, it has created shortages of natural gas on the world with commensurate huge price/inflation increases, including in the US. The objective to weaken the ruble has resulted in just the opposite, and in fact has significantly weakened the dollar and the euro.
Political Problems
The Biden administration seems unable to distinguish between domestic and foreign policy. A month after the Russian invasion, the WH proclaimed its commitment to those affected by the war – “especially vulnerable populations such as women, children, lesbian, gay, transgender and intersex persons, and those with disabilities.” Biden seems to view Russia’s conflict with Ukraine as autocracy vs. democracy – the same framework used to describe “MAGA Republicans” in early September. He sees domestic terror and conflict on the same level as foreign.
In August, the PEW Center published a study listing the top 15 issues on the minds of Americans. The Russia-Ukraine war did not make that list for Americans.
In the ‘90’s the US and its European allies controlled 70% of the world GDP. It’s now at 43% as the economic power is shifting to Asia and others. US and western European sanctions no longer carry the weight they once did. Yet our leaders continue to think that 20th century foreign policy is still valid in the 21st century.
Let’s face it. Our actions and unwavering support for Ukraine in the war has no benefit for us.
Ukraine is not a model of democracy – quite the contrary as the current government has outlawed its political party opposition and consolidated all media outlets to ensure no criticism of the current Ukraine government.
So, what is our objective in fighting this proxy war? Early on, President Biden suggested it was the ouster of Putin and regime change in Russia. To me that’s the height of naivety and foolishness, especially in the face of the threat of a nuclear holocaust.
Don’t take anything discussed here as signaling the problem is solely on President Biden and the Democrats. The Republican ‘hawks’ have played a major role in extending this war as well.
Regardless, it’s time to end it. It can and should be done rather easily to the benefit of all.
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Have a great and prosperous week.
Hug somebody.
References:
https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/complications-of-the-ukraine-war/
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/is-ukraine-a-democracy-separating-fact-from-fiction/ar-AAVnxdx
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