Can We Trust the Government?
We’ve referenced government statistics often in this space, trusting the numbers published and stated as ‘official’ are correct – or nearly so.
We know many of the statistics are estimated but we also know from what various departments and agencies publish as to the methods used. While those estimates are just that, the extensive sampling done in most cases results in acceptable and useful results. And since those numbers are supposedly generated from a large and consistent sample size and/or the same sources, we’ve grown to trust them.
The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program publishes a quarterly count of employment and wages reported by employers covering more than 95 percent of U.S. jobs available at the county, Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), state and national levels by detailed industry.
Here’s the apple cart – upset.
For the 2nd quarter of 2022, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 1,121,500 jobs created in the months of April, May and June.
It seemed to some of us at the time to be inconsistent with Commerce Dept. report indicating negative GDP growth for the same period – for the second quarter in a row.
It’s an accepted fact, based on the long and studied history of our economy that two consecutive negative GDP growth represents a recession.
But I wrote it off at the time as some sort of anomaly. Silly me.
Economists at the Philadelphia Federal Reserve apparently had the same question mark as many of us did, but unlike us, they decided to check for themselves.
What they found was a bald-faced lie had been told.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia report indicates that the employment changes from March through June 2022 were significantly different in 33 states and the District of Columbia compared with current state estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES). Early benchmark estimates indicated higher changes in four states, lower changes in 29 states and the District of Columbia, and lesser changes in the remaining 17 states.
In the aggregate, 10,500 net new jobs were added during the period rather than the 1,121,500 jobs estimated by the sum of the states; the U.S. CES estimated net growth of 1,047,000 jobs for the period. Payroll jobs in the nation remained essentially flat from March through June 2022 after adjusting for Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data.
Who’s running the government?
First, everyone knows the economy is a major factor in national elections. An economy in downturn generally makes for a change in Congressional Representatives and Senators, and in presidential elections. President Biden made a big deal out of “a million jobs added in the 2nd quarter” in the recent midterms. It can reasonably be speculated more Republicans would have been elected if the economy was in a downturn – which it was – but the numbers reported didn’t show that to be the case.
Martin J. Walsh is the Secretary of Labor. He’s ultimately responsible for the employment numbers. The fact his numbers were off by a million jobs would seem to be something anyone in that position would either fire those bureaucrats responsible or lose their job over.
Which brings me to second major point.
Before reading this blog, you are likely among the vast majority of adults who are awake in this country who were unaware the 2nd quarter, 2022 jobs added number was not only a million off, but the actual number showed no job growth at all. Why? Because you didn’t know the truth.
How could you? You and I did not read or see or hear a thing about this lie by this administration. The national news media totally ignored the story. What do these media people do? They’re certainly not journalists and certainly not the fourth pillar of our democracy as envisioned by the founding fathers. What’s happening is not pretty. The national news media is acting like a government-controlled information outlet. And this is the “um” teeth time.
The southern border is secure, we have a huge stake in the Russia-Ukraine war, parents at school board meetings are domestic terrorists, white supremacy is the country’s major threat, conservatives and MAGA Republicans represent all that’s evil, etc., etc., etc.
So, let’s go back to the question posed by the title of the piece.
The answer is a resounding “NO” – we can’t rely on what comes out of this government.
If it’s willing to fix the numbers on one thing, it’s willing to fix the numbers and narratives on everything.
Policy and legislation often depend on the numbers generated by government. But when the cart is put before the horse – in this case meaning when it instigates a policy or passes legislation – or wins elections – based on fake numbers, it’s fraud and corruption.
Fool me once,….
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Have a great and prosperous week.
Hug somebody.
References:
https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-philadelphia-fed-just-revised-jobs-lower-by-1-2-million-for-q2
SPIDER Bites
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