The Truth About Climate Change
Before we review some pertinent data and look at the actual “science” on the title subject, let’s remind ourselves of several things.
One, confirmation bias – the tendency of people to seek out and accept information that confirms their beliefs and prejudices.
Two, group think – the tendency for people’s beliefs to become more extreme when they’re surrounded by like-minded colleagues. They come to assume that their opinions are not only the norm but also the truth.
Those things in turn result in the non-acceptance, even intolerance of contrary or even skeptical views. Today, those differing views and the people proposing them or at best ignored, at worst silenced.
When those factors are strong enough money is spent and/or awarded for more research and action. If you’re a scientist and want to be funded for your research, it helps to indicate your effort(s) will be focused on supporting or proving the accepted perception. The scenario becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy – feeding on itself.
So, now let’s talk about the science of climate change. Originally called global warming, it was changed because warming has potential aftereffects of a reduction in fresh water and precipitation.
How serious is global warming? The latest study by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) indicated Earth’s average surface temperatures had risen about 0.74 degrees Celsius (1.33 degrees Fahrenheit) the past 100 years. NASA indicates two-thirds of that increase has occurred since 1975.
And while the earth has experienced numerous ‘ages’ of warming and cooling over the millennia, the concern was/is that those past natural changes occurred slowly. Some scientists have postulated that now there’s a more rapid change because of greenhouse gases, mainly defined as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons – assumed to be generated by human activity. These gases allow the sun’s rays to hit the earth but reduce the natural loss of that heat from the earth. Ergo, global warming. In 2015 NOAA warned speedup was imminent, but to my knowledge, the acceleration of warmer temps hasn’t been proven or data supported.
I don’t know all the measurements and methods involved at arriving at the global temperature increase as reported by the IPCC (and NASA), but let’s assume the report of a 1.33 degrees Fahrenheit increase the last 100 years is close to correct. I say this for sake of argument because we all know there are dozens of variables that effect the earth’s climate, including increases and decreases in volcanic activity. (and how does NASA know the global temperature in 1880?)
Skepticism enters the picture when various ‘scientists’ plug their chosen numbers and the weight they give to each of them into different computer programs and come up with dire predictions, even doomsday.
Without spending time on each prediction generated, we know that nobody knows any of those projections are valid. Science is a moving target, formulating a hypothesis and then setting forth efforts to prove it. Sometimes a scientist can make a step toward proving his/her hypothesis, sometimes not. That’s OK, regardless of the results. That’s science – it’s about learning.
We know global warming has grown into a front burner political issue. We also know the media loves to report negative news. So, that computer model that predicts imminent Armageddon becomes headline news.
That news generates and feeds hysteria – which is the opposite and downfall of science.
Politicians have found new bases for policies and stances that might otherwise be deemed unworthy of consideration. And the assumed ‘science’ of climate change has become a mantra for doing and not doing lots of things. Even President Biden has taken up the call. On the days white supremacy isn’t the country’s greatest threat, climate change is. It’s blamed for most everything including the recent surge in illegal immigrants. He is seen touting the notion that we have until 2035 to rid ourselves of the use of fossil fuels or else we face dire consequences.
When politicians and advocates propose extreme action in the face of climate change, we hear such things as the devastating rise of ocean water levels and the increased number of hurricanes and wildfires – and droughts.
Let’s look at those numbers. This is the actual science – the data.
Sea Levels
While difficult to measure, the best report I found indicates sea levels have risen .3mm/year since 1900. That’s 0.12 inches/year or 12 inches/hundred years. Even with a slight increase in the rate it hardly represents coastal areas under water in a few decades.
Hurricanes
1990 – 14 hurricanes
2000 – 8 hurricanes
2010 – 12 hurricanes
2020 – 14 hurricanes
The numbers do show an increased number of Atlantic storms in 2020, but only 14 with winds exceeding 74 mph – hurricanes. There’s no increase in hurricanes – suggesting otherwise is either a lie or ignorance. There were 12 hurricanes in 1965.
Wildfires
2001 – 84,079 wildfires
2011 – 74,176 wildfires
2015 – 68,151 wildfires
2020 – 58,950 wildfires
The average number of wildfires the last 20 years is 69,649 – and the acreage burned varies by state and year.
There are three major points to be added here. One, 90% of all wildfires are started by humans: i.e., campfires left unattended, the burning of debris, downed power lines, negligently discarded cigarettes and intentional acts of arson. The remaining 10 percent are started by lightning or lava. Three, forest management or non-management significantly impacts the occurrence and size of wildfires.
The point is – the data doesn’t show an increase or substantive change and certainly doesn’t support climate change as the ‘new’ culprit for wildfires.
Climate change evangelists throw “droughts” into their ‘science’ for good measure of the ‘scorching heat.’ I won’t bore you with that data – which is all over the map. I grew up on a farm. I know about the risk of no or too much rain at critical seasonal times.
So, when we take the rhetoric/narrative out and look at the data – the science – it’s not apparent climate change is a global disaster waiting to happen.
Putting unsubstantiated predictions into the picture is not science. Again, previous ominous predictions for earlier – and right now – were/are obviously wrong. That fact does not make current predictions of looming Armageddon any more credible.
No one denies the earth is warming, however slowly. No one is opposed to efficient, reliable, and cost-effective green energy. But if the world stopped emitting CO2 tomorrow, would global warming stop? There’s speculation it wouldn’t but it’s just that – speculation. That’s the real question that no climatologist has answered. I don’t think anyone is really trying to answer it.
There are no scientific data or finding(s) that requires immediate, unwarranted, and foolish (non-scientific) action, negatively impacting our economy, incomes, and lifestyles. Would we change our world and regress without proof?
I’ll close by reporting – for what it’s worth – the US has met the goals set by the Paris Accord – reducing the 2005 level of greenhouse gas emissions 17% by 2020. The major factor was the substitution of natural gas for coal in our power plants. That was accomplished by the private sector. It’s 35% cheaper. The market works!
Let’s keep that age-old, capitalistic, free-market idea in our scientific portfolio – along with the truth – and tell wannabe “Scientists,” [and economists] – aka, bartenders and left-wing politicians – to pound sand.
We’ll listen to the truth.
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Have a great and prosperous week.
Hug somebody.
References:
https://www.city-journal.org/html/real-war-science-14782.html
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/decadaltemp.php
https://usafacts.org/articles/how-many-wildfires-occur-america-each-year/
https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/greenhouse-effect/
https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/how-much-has-the-sea-level-risen-since-1997.html
http://www.stormfax.com/huryear.htm
https://www.nifc.gov/fire-information/statistics/wildfires
SPIDER Bites
Gallop’s latest poll shows just 26% approve of the job Congress is doing. I think it’s a lot fewer if the right question was asked.
Starting yesterday, FL Gov. DeSantis blocked the additional $300 in unemployment benefits to Floridians. He has joined the 20 states who are doing the same because it’s preventing workers from filling open positions. President Biden has announced the additional federal benefit will not extend beyond Labor Day.
Last week Senate Republicans gratefully killed the federal grab (SR1) for control of state and local elections – something the Constitution specifically gives to the states. The House version of the bill, HR1 narrowly passed that chamber in March – 220-210.
On Wednesday the President outlined his plan to address the increase in violent crime in many of our cities. Pardon me, but enforcing the gun sale laws misses the mark. Of course, the laws should be enforced, but the focus should have been – and needs to be – on criminals that use guns – not the guns or gun dealers. Efforts to arrest and incarcerate violent gang members that have taken over neighborhoods need to be stepped up. That in turn means more police and prosecution – not ‘defund’ and ‘no bail’ policies. People are scared, which resulted in record 2020 gun sales – nearly 40 million – 40% of them women, over half African Americans – according to the FBI. The previous high was 28 million in 2019.
Just last week the Fed said higher prices – inflation – would be transitory. This week it said temporary inflation pressures may last longer than it thought, meaning interest rates may need to increase sooner than originally anticipated. Feel better?
Looks like there may be a deal for an infrastructure bill. It’s only another trillion dollars – ours and our grandchildren’s.
Here we go. The Maine legislature is now considering a government takeover, oops, the words are “consumer-owned” – of the state’s two, investor owned, electric power generating companies. This is how Venezuela started it’s race to the bottom. Incredible.
